closed-book-hallucination-detection-training-small-supervised-classifier-over-many
mechanismreplicatedpending review

For closed-book hallucination detection, training a small supervised classifier over many heterogeneous uncertainty scores beats the best single score, but the gain comes from the diversity of sampling-based black-box signals: ensembles over only single-generation token-probability features add little, while black-box-only ensembles do nearly as well as the full set.

Ingested from a paper but not yet reviewed by a human. It is deliberately inert: it does not move any technique’s standing, does not count toward the backtest, and is excluded anywhere a claim would carry weight. Read the source before relying on it.

Capability: Stating false facts confidently

Observed on

Four closed-weight LLMs (Gemini 2.5 Flash/Pro, GPT-4o, GPT-4o-mini), nine datasets, short-form QA, claim-level long-form, and Python competitive-programming code; labels available .

Sources

  • AUROC over 25 stratified splits per setting; best ensemble beat the best individual scorer in 30 of 32 settings and had lowest ECE in 29 of 32, with gains from ~100 labeled instances; ablation on five short-form datasets: black-box-only ensembles beat the best black- box scorer in 19 of 20 settings, white-box-only in 11 of 20. The single-scorer baseline is selected on the test set, so it is optimistic. Sample-efficiency finding replicates Bakman et al. Margins are often 0.01-0.02 AUROC and sometimes inside confidence intervals; [truncated]
Status: pending-reviewLast checked: 2026-09-09Evidence activity: not checked yet
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Notes

Drafted from the paper by a model and filed unreviewed. Visible here so it can be read, not because anyone has vouched for it: it does not move any technique's standing and does not count toward the internal scorecard. Drafted confidence: medium. Falsifier as drafted: An evaluation where an ensemble restricted to single-generation white-box token-probability features matches full or black-box ensembles, or where the full ensemble fails to beat a validation-selected single scorer in most settings. Proposed technique, not catalogued: Supervised ensemble of uncertainty-quantification scores.